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Case file · basket of 4

Example · When process pays

Trade Quality Matrix

Process (decision quality) vs. outcome (P&L). The goal is to live in the top-right — and to recognise top-left losses as good trades that simply didn't pay.

Trade quality matrix — process score versus profit and loss for 4 trades: 3 Disciplined Winners, 1 Statistical Casualty.

Each trade's process score, profit or loss, and quality quadrant
InstrumentProcess scoreProfit or lossQuadrant
TSLA82/100+$64.90Disciplined Winner
MSFT62/100-$86.28Statistical Casualty
NVDA88/100+$840.85Disciplined Winner
AAPL58/100+$37.44Disciplined Winner
Disciplined Winner
Statistical Casualty
Lucky Fool
Account Destroyer

Case file · basket verdict

Three sound decisions and one flinch — the process is ahead of the patience.

VerdictGood73 / 100

Across these four trades (September 2023 – March 2024) you netted +$856.91, and more importantly, three of the four decisions were structurally sound: a pre-defined stop honoured on the TSLA short (+$64.90, +1.3R), a small loss taken promptly on MSFT (−$86.28, cut at ~4% rather than nursed), and a full catalyst hold on NVDA (+$840.85, banking 96% of the move's best level).

The one leak is exit discipline on winners. The AAPL trade had the strongest written thesis of the basket — a named June catalyst — and the weakest exit: +$37.44 taken on 18 March with no target and no trailing rule, leaving roughly $258 of the identified move on the table.

The pattern to keep: decide the exit before the entry. It is what made NVDA and the TSLA short work, and its absence is the entire story of the AAPL trade.

Market context

This window spanned the strongest phase of the AI-infrastructure rally: NVIDIA's February FY24 report reset expectations for the whole sector, megacap tech led indices to repeated all-time highs, and the dips of November 2023 and early January 2024 were shallow and quickly bought.

Top fixes for this basket
1
Write the exit rule — target or trailing stop — before entry, and let winners hit it.1× in this basket

≈ +$258 on AAPL alone ((207.00 − 174.80) × 8 left on the table)

2
Wait for confirmation instead of anticipating the move.1× in this basket

≈ $53 of the MSFT loss was pure early entry (366.78 vs ~358.00 confirmation × 6)

Benchmark

Same period, no trading

What would have happened holding S&P 500 instead.

Underperformed
Your trades (approx. return)4 trades
+10.73%
S&P 500buy & hold
+15.70%
Profitable and disciplined — and still behind the index. These four trades returned roughly +10.7% on capital deployed while the S&P 500 gained about 15.7% between September 2023 and March 2024. That is not an argument to stop trading; it is a reminder that in a strong tape, the cost of cutting winners early (AAPL) is measured against a benchmark that never blinks.

Trade Breakdown

4 trades
Basket Details
Trades
4
TSLA, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL
Total P&L
+$856.91
Period
Sep 15, 2023
to Mar 18, 2024
P&L by Market
TSLAMSFTNVDAAAPL-3000+300+600+900
Basket Quality
Win RateEntry QualityExit QualitySizingRatings

All analysis is generated by AI and is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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