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Case file · basket of 4

Example · The tilt tax

Trade Quality Matrix

Process (decision quality) vs. outcome (P&L). The goal is to live in the top-right — and to recognise top-left losses as good trades that simply didn't pay.

Trade quality matrix — process score versus profit and loss for 4 trades: 1 Statistical Casualty, 2 Account Destroyers, 1 Disciplined Winner.

Each trade's process score, profit or loss, and quality quadrant
InstrumentProcess scoreProfit or lossQuadrant
MSFT62/100-$86.28Statistical Casualty
TSLA18/100-$443.00Account Destroyer
AAPL58/100+$37.44Disciplined Winner
S&P 50012/100-$51.00Account Destroyer
Disciplined Winner
Statistical Casualty
Lucky Fool
Account Destroyer

Case file · basket verdict

The careful trades cost $48.84. The tilted ones cost $494.00.

VerdictBad38 / 100

This basket shows the same trader in two different modes. In controlled mode — MSFT (−$86.28, cut promptly at ~4%) and AAPL (+$37.44, right thesis, early exit) — the combined damage is a manageable −$48.84. In tilted mode, the numbers change character entirely: the oversized TSLA position held 12% past a planned 5% stop (−$443.00), and the revenge-sized S&P 500 re-entry at triple normal size days after a drawdown (−$51.00), together cost −$494.00.

The sequencing matters more than the sum. The TSLA loss in February is the emotional setup for the April revenge trade: a large, unplanned loss followed weeks later by an oversized attempt to win it back quickly. That chain — oversize, hold past the stop, then revenge — is the single most expensive habit in this basket, and it is entirely a decision problem, not a market one.

The one rule that changes this basket: position size is fixed before entry and never increases because you are down.

Market context

November 2023 through April 2024 was a strong market punctured by one sharp air-pocket: the mid-April 2024 sell-off on sticky CPI prints and Middle East escalation. Tesla was a notable laggard through Q1 on delivery and margin pressure — a bad name to be oversized and stopless in.

Top fixes for this basket
1
Make the stop mechanical: when the pre-set level breaks, the position closes — no re-evaluation.1× in this basket

$260.60 of the TSLA loss came after your own 5% stop level (exit 173.33 vs 160.30 × 20)

2
Fix position size before entry and never raise it because you are down.2× in this basket

Half-size on TSLA alone saves $221.50; normal size on the S&P 500 re-entry saves another $34.00

3
After any stopped-out loss, no new positions for 24 hours.1× in this basket

Breaks the loss-chase chain before it compounds — the April re-entry had no thesis beyond recovering losses

Benchmark

Same period, no trading

What would have happened holding S&P 500 instead.

Underperformed
Your trades (approx. return)4 trades
-3.65%
S&P 500buy & hold
+16.40%
Over the same November-to-April window the S&P 500 returned roughly +16.4%; this basket returned about −3.7% on deployed capital. The gap is not stock-picking — it is two decisions: an unhonoured stop and a revenge-sized re-entry. Remove those and the basket is a rounding error from flat in a market that was rising.

Trade Breakdown

4 trades
Basket Details
Trades
4
MSFT, TSLA, AAPL, S&P 500
Total P&L
-$542.84
Period
Nov 8, 2023
to Apr 26, 2024
P&L by Market
MSFTTSLAAAPLS&P 500-450-300-1500+150
Basket Quality
Win RateEntry QualityExit QualitySizingRatings

All analysis is generated by AI and is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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