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Case file · MSFT-1108

MSFT

Case file · trade verdict

Statistical Casualty

Sound process, market rolled a 1. Stay the course.

VerdictOK62 / 100
Process 62/100
AI Verdict · Professional

A timing miss, not a discipline failure. You anticipated the move instead of waiting for confirmation and entered at 366.78; the drift went against you and you cut at 352.40 for −$86.28 — roughly a 4% loss, taken promptly rather than nursed. Wrong on entry, right on exit. This is what a survivable losing trade looks like.

What you could have done
  • Wait for a confirmed higher-low (or the event itself) before entering, rather than pre-positioning on anticipation.
The impact

Entering on confirmation nearer 358.00 saves (366.78 − 358.00) × 6 = $52.68 of the $86.28 loss.

Lesson for next time

Early is a polite word for wrong — let the market confirm before you pay for a thesis.

Market Context

Early November 2023: markets chopped sideways ahead of quarterly updates and Fed commentary, with megacap tech drifting before the year-end rally resumed.

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One trade only tells one story. Group MSFT with other trades in a basket and the AI compares them against each other — same 1 credit as this analysis.

Trade Details
spreadbet
MSFT
↑ Long
P&L
-$86.28
Entry → Exit
$366.78 → $352.40
Size: 6
Dates
Nov 8, 2023
6 days duration
Your Note

Entered too early ahead of earnings — got caught in the pre-earnings drift lower

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